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Business Risk
Victor Bout and the World's troubled spots
Scores of those who argued against Victor
Bout were questioning "Why does he tend to commonly operate
in or around the world's hot spots?", places like Angola and
Congo for example. Why did not he operate in "more
civilized" and more stable countries? Why were Victor Bout's
airplanes registered in countries like Liberia? Why not in
Europe for example?
The answers to all of these and similar
questions are very simple. The fleet dictates where the
aircraft can be registered, and the available opportunities
dictate where to operate. Let us talk about that in
detail...
Why Victor's aircraft were registered in "Flag of
Convenience" countries?
All of Victor's
aircraft were Russian-made aircraft, and in most cases they
were ex-military purchased from the government upon the
collapse of the Soviet Union. All aircraft must be certified
for particular use by the manufacturer, and by the aviation
authority in the country where they were manufactured or
were operated. Although plenty of the Russian-made aircraft
were certified for civilian operations, a good part of them
were not, for example the Antonov-8 aircraft. The AN-8 were
manufactured by Antonov for the Russian military, and
therefore, there was no need to have them certified for
civilian use, notwithstanding that such certification would
not be required given that all establishments in the Soviet
Union used to be part of the government along with the
civilian airlines.
When Victor Bout
purchased the Antonov-8 as his first aircraft, he was faced
with a great problem in registering the aircraft given that
the AN-8 did not have certificate from any country for
civilian use. Here comes the "Flag of Convenience" to
play. A "Flag of Convenience registration" means
registering the aircraft in a country that allows the
registration of an aircraft or a vessel into its flag at a
higher cost and minimal scrutiny. In such registration the
aircraft or vessel would not usually be required to even
visit the country, where it is being registered, for
inspection. Liberia was, and still is, offering such
registration, along with several other countries around the
world. Therefore, and given that most of the Russian-made
aircraft had no certificates, Victor was forced to register
his fleet in a "Flag of Convenience" registry. It is a
matter of necessity rather than choice, and it is still the
same until this day; however, at lesser degree given that
most of the Ex-Soviet fleet is now aging and retiring.
This is the
answer as to why Victor Bout's aircraft were registered
under a "Flag of Convenience" rather than in a "respectful"
registry. It is also important to mention, that "Flag of
Convenience" does not automatically mean that the operator
is using "unsafe or less safe" aircraft. It is a matter of
fact and record to mention that throughout its existence
Aircess maintained accident-free record of operation.
Why did Victor operate in "troubled" areas?
Troubled area in competitive terms means
better opportunity and higher aircraft leasing rates, where
the matter is placing assets to their "best utilization."
The decision concerning "where to operate" was always
subject to a standard cost-benefit line of reasoning and
comparative analysis of:
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The area of
operations |
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The assets
and investment deployed, and the restriction on the
utilization of such assets |
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The sizes
of competition and available market, and |
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The
expected return on investment given the amount of risk
taken |
In most cases, Victor's decision to
operate in Africa and the Middle East was dictated by the
type of aircraft he operated and the restrictions applied
over the operations of such assets. For example, the heavy
freighter Ilyushin-76 is a Stage-II aircraft that is not
permitted to fly into Europe, the US, and several other
countries because it is not compliant with certain
requirements related to noise and pollution. Therefore, and
given that you own one of this type, you are restricted to
operate in less restricted airspace which always happened to
be in Africa, Middle East, and such places. Besides the
Noise and Pollution, several other restrictions placed
severe limitations on the area of operations for the
Russian-made aircraft, and that was the number one reason
that forced Victor Bout into operations in Africa.
The other factors involve the risk and
available opportunity, that means Victor decided that he can
deploy and operate his inexpensive aircraft where the
operator with newer and more expensive Aircraft will be
unwilling to operate or deploy his aircraft considering the
instability and risk. The "troubled spots" offered plenty
of opportunities in the absence of competition. The
opportunities were abundant, the risk was too. The risk was
involving the loss of aircraft.
For a conventional Western operator the
possibility of loosing an aircraft would have barred such
operator from doing business in any place where instability
exists, as to Victor Bout who had acquired most of his
aircraft at a cost equal to what he may collect in one
month, the amount of taken risk was tolerable and mitigated
through his ability to maintain good relations with the
authorities in the area where he operated.
Nonetheless, risk remains always a risk
and the unpredictable can happen where instability persists
regardless of relations. As such, Aircess had once lost an
Ilyushin-18 aircraft while it was parked overnight. The
airport where it was parked was attacked by a rebel group as
can be seen in the pictures herein showing the aircraft
before and after it was destroyed in the fight.
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Considering all the risks it engulfs and
all the opportunities it provides, operating an airline in
the "Troubled Spot" can be a great prospect if the operator
manages to stay away from the trouble. The Iraq war, for
example, provided great opportunity to dozens of start-up
airlines to work and grow despite the grave risk the
operators are taking with every take-off.
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What's New!
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Defective
Indictment
Watch
Chichakli's response and
See evidence of government lies!
SECRETS
are revealed
in the new book by Daniel Estulin
read more
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Colombia
the US and Victor Bout
read more
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VICTOR BOUT
ACQUITTED and the U.S. is denied
extradition
Victor was
detained on March 6, 2008, Victor is not
charged with any wrongdoing in Thailand but he
is jailed and denied bond under pressure from
the US government.
After more than
one and a half years in jail the Thai court,
despite the extreme pressure applied by the US
government, declared that the US allegations
against Victor Bout are politically motivated
and lack the legal ground necessary to grant the
US government request to extradite Victor Bout
to the US. |
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